Objekt Orient
There are unknown knowns.
XING
Online for 2217 days
Last update: 2008.08.18, 11:19
status
Youre not logged in ... Login
menu
search
calendar
August 2008
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31
July
recent updates
The FaceAPI Seeing is believing http://www.seeingmachines.com/faceAPI.html
by rolandk (2008.08.18, 11:19)
Groops Groops - at first glance - seems a pure, extremly well crafted Group Forming...
by rolandk (2008.08.13, 23:05)
Brads Open Web Brad Neuberg defines interoperability for the Web. A wise decision to take...
by rolandk (2008.08.01, 09:17)
The Linda Problem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy Note for my brain: need to read more into Prospect Theory
by rolandk (2008.07.25, 21:28)
The fallacy of a "technical" Domain Model Today I came to the notion of a...
by rolandk (2008.07.22, 20:01)
the ToC looks interesting indeed
by rolandk (2008.07.18, 16:50)
Junkfood harms! [...] he said he has wife and seven kids to support [...] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPgpYux8HJQ
by rolandk (2008.07.18, 16:43)
That one looks quite interesting as well: http://www.labyrinthbooks.com/sale_detail.aspx?isbn=9780521388849 Via Cosma Shalizi; in case your...
by chris (2008.07.16, 21:51)
Wunder Crafts My collegue is able to write emails a bayesian filter recognizes as Spam.
by rolandk (2008.07.16, 14:59)
Theories of Probability in the 20th Century, Part II Pre-WWI Cambridge was a highly influential...
by rolandk (2008.07.12, 12:53)

Roland Kofler's Blog on Software Engineering on
Made with Antville
Helma Object Publisher
Friday, 4. July 2008
Theories of Probability in the 20th Century, Part I
Half way on the road, I will now give a small review of the book "Philosophical Theories of Probability" by Donald Gillies

Departing from the origins of P() theory in the 17then century, the book opens the classical theory with the analogy of Laplace's demon.
For Laplace the world is inherently causal and mechanistic. God gave us limited senses and mind to fully understand the chain of causality a phenomena must obey, thus probability is a workaround to our limited capabilities to be able to uncover at least some mechanics and achieve some securities in an over-complex world. If a being, the said demon, would exist, which is able to observe the whole universe from begin of the world on, this being would be able to predict every future event in this universe and probabilities would not matter to him.

The classical theory views the world as a deterministic system, probabilities cannot be inherent in objective nature but must be relative to human ignorance.
Laplace believes that in an experiment we must regard every outcome as equally possible, since we cannot know better.
The classical formula therefore is P(E)= m/n. The probability of outcome E is the fraction of favorable cases to E, m, and all possible cases n.

We enter 20thies century probability with pre First World War England.
But frankly next week :-)

... comment